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Sam Harsimony's avatar

Cool thanks for writing this up!

One extension to bring this closer to people's model of AI risk is to have a time T where there's a chance that utility goes to zero (AI takeover) or a person gets a one-time utility boost from the capital they have left (i.e. their money buys them some amount of expected utility in a post-singularity future).

I think you would end up with a Merton-like portfolio for the time leading up to T with some cash saved for after the singularity.

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Nuño Sempere's avatar

This... assumes there is no consumption? Or that you can't spend money now to reduce risk later??

Overall I don't understand what's going on here.

> the optimal portfolio is independent of discounting - so high estimates of doom do not suppress stock holdings

I don't understand why. Could you say a bit more about the intuition here?

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